End of Movie Theaters? Right Lipsky…Right…
Mark Lipsky has pontificated again–if you’ve never read his previous posts on The Wrap, he’s made the claim a few times before–that theaters are destined to be virtually extinct in less than two decades. Technology he argues, along with multiplexes’ lack of personality–i.e. they’re not the opulent movie houses of old–will hasten the culling.
What this reminds me of is an episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation when three cryogenically frozen people from 20th century Earth were revived in the 24th. One of the 20th century folk, marveling at all the techno-advancement, asks where’s the television? I believe it’s Riker or Picard that intimates with their answer that Federation society has evolved beyond television.
When I was 14, I bristled at the idea that ST:TNG would make such a claim, not because I was a TV watching teenage fiend, it was because it sounded arrogant. It was one of those elements that demonstrates why some people have never warmed to Star Trek‘s utopian undertones. Gene Rodenberry’s egalitarian vision of society aside, Trek could often feel more exclusionary than evolutionary.
In imagining the theatrical landscape of 2025, Lipsky makes the same mistake. By ignoring the actual social component and artificially separating the film experience into “then” and “now” he never takes into account how audiences actually consume, participate and engage in the movie experience. The Grand Movie House experience may be what Lipsky wants exhibitors to aspire to, or ultimately not, either way it isn’t what modern audiences want. And technology may change many things, but creating an experience that only folks like Lipsky will enjoy won’t be one of them.
Lipsky does try to address the social side of film watching with this bit here: “the coming metamorphosis will not only provide a superior and untethered AV experience, it will enhance the communal aspect of “moviegoing” to an almost unimaginable level.” However I suggest you should never underestimate the power strangers sitting together and enjoying the same event has. It is one reason why, among many, plays, concerts and sporting events have existed and thrived for thousands, not hundreds, not dozens, but thousands, of years.
All Audiences want to be pulled into a movie, and to feel the entire endeavor from credit card transaction to final credits was worth it. Ask the folks who saw Inception or Toy Story 3 this Summer. However, I’m pretty sure the multiplex itself isn’t the prime culprit for audience dissatisfaction–that would be horrible movies and poor scripts (and I’m pretty sure it isn’t since the multiplex has been king for the last 30 years plus). Nor, do I think that home theaters are going to totally replicate what it feels like to hit your local theater to laugh, cry or recoil in anticipation–nor do I think it’s the only, or best way to see a film, or any film for that matter.
That all being said, IF studios, and exhibitors, do not adjust their business to meet audience expectations, to give audiences films they’ll respond to, except for when they are at home watching those same films on a flat screen in HD with surround sound, then yes, theaters will be dead.
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Charles. Thanks for noticing the post. Sorry that you chose to respond here instead of on my blog where we could have had the conversation with the full post right in view. I’m actually thrilled with the minor shitstorm my post has elicited. I don’t write to speak at people. I like to speak with them and I appreciate your opening up a window for that here. Just a couple of things, First, as I said right up front in the post, I’ve never before predicted that movies theaters were going extinct. This was the first time and I believe that everything I wrote in the post will be proven true – and in the timeframe I laid out. Second, I never said that people would no longer congregate to experience movies. I guess I should have been more expansive on that point and I certainly will in the future. Thanks for putting my feet to the fire on that point. What’s undeniable in my mind is that they will not be congregating in movie theaters as they exist today. Third, to compare live events to my comments about film is unfair. I wasn’t writing about live events. That was a cheap shot and completely beside the point I was making. But to each his own. Finally, I want to agree with you that bad films certainly contribute to the coming death of the cineplex. But it’s not the studios who will be hurt by the coming technology. It’s the exhibitors alone who will meet their maker. The 20 year old technology that they’re finally beginning to install in their boxes is far too little and more than a decade too late. I’d love to continue the conversation any time. Come on by my place sometime for a better feel for what the future may or may not have in store. Cheers! Mark.
Mark,
Granted you’ve never right out said theaters were going extinct before, however, anyone that’s read you over the last few months can definitely infer that’s been one of your underlying points. Even if you’re just arriving at this conclusion with your post, I think it’s one that you’ve been building to for a while.
“What’s undeniable in my mind is that they will not be congregating in movie theaters as they exist today.”
Worded this way, that’s a prediction I can on many levels agree with. I think the question is, change in technology or not, when does a movie theater cease to be a movie theater. Is it the number of seats? Is it the configuration? Is it in what’s played? Is it public versus private screenings?
I’m more likely to believe, as you’ve pointed out in your reply, that real change will come in the role exhibitors will play in the next twenty years. Right now, they are more beholden to distributors than audiences. Forty years ago, I think it can be argued there was more parity, with exceptions. It doesn’t matter if exhibitors, especially regional ones, have a better grasp on who their patrons are, distributors are able to wield incredible influence on how many screens they can have, when their films will come down, where their films will play and the revenue split. There’s a great possibility that there could be a new breed of exhibitor that can fulfill the curator and gatekeeper role that many once had.
Whatever the future may hold, the lines between distributor, exhibitor and creator are going to blur and in some arenas won’t even exist anymore. It’s an evolution I think is going to be fun to watch and very empowering. Yet, I don’t think it’s going to be a ubiquitous evolution, in some areas the silos are going to remain intact.
Back to movie theaters, I just think they’re going to continue to exist. Yes, they will change and mutate, however, at their core, they’re still going to be movie theaters. And the reason I think that, is because there is a social aspect to the movie going experience that is intangible and unquantifiable and that technology will never change–influence yes, change no.
The reason I used sports, theater and concerts as a contrasting example, is because with every new technology, someone in the past predicted said technology was to going usurp those experiences. Be it the record with concerts, TV with sports—good riddance blackout—and theater. Granted, there is a live element, as you point out, that really doesn’t exist, however, as with those other events, it can’t be underestimated how powerful group ritual and group experience is. And movie theaters, even the multiplexes, like stadiums and theaters are places that are integrated into our social and physical landscape in ways that have given them an invested meaning and function that, again, is just intangible.
So I agree that what’s inside movie theaters will change over time. What movie theaters are, fundamentally, won’t.
I’m going to post this on your blog as well.
Anonymous said…
Mark and his brothers own and run
http://www.giganticdigital.com
its an online steaming movie subscription service. He goes on sites that are read primarily by movie insiders and spreads this propaganda so he can cash in down the road. Shame on him and shame on thewrap!